Key Highlights of Economic Survey 2021

Union Minister for Finance and Corporate Affairs, Smt. Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Economic Survey 2020-21 in the Parliament today. The key highlights of Economic Survey 2020-21, which is  dedicated to the COVID Warriors , are as follows:
Saving Lives and Livelihoods amidst a Once-in-a-Century Crisis
•           India focused on saving lives and livelihoods by its willingness to take  short-term pain for long-term gain,  at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic
•           Response stemmed from the  humane principle  that:

Human lives lost cannot be brought back

o GDP growth will recover from the temporary shock caused by the pandemic
•           An  early, intense lockdown provided a win-win strategy  to save lives, and preserve livelihoods via economic recovery in the medium to long-term
•           Strategy also motivated by the Nobel-Prize winning research by Hansen & Sargent (2001): a policy focused on  minimizing losses in a worst-case scenario  when uncertainty is very high
•           India’s strategy  flattened the curve ,   pushed the peak to September 2020
•           After the September peak, India has been unique in experiencing  declining daily cases despite increasing mobility
•            V-shaped recovery , as seen in 7.5% decline in GDP in Q2 and recovery across all key economic indicators vis-à-vis the 23.9% GDP contraction in Q1
•           COVID pandemic affected both demand and supply:

India was the only country to announce  structural   reforms to expand supply  in the medium-long term and avoid long-term damage to productive capacities
Calibrated demand-side policies  to ensure that the accelerator is slowly pushed down only when the brakes on economic activities are being removed

o A public investment programme centered around the  National Infrastructure Pipeline  to accelerate the demand push and further the recovery
•            Upturn in the economy, avoiding a second wave of infections  – a sui generis case in strategic policymaking amidst a once-in-a-century pandemic
 
State of the Economy in 2020-21: A Macro View
•           COVID-19 pandemic ensued  global economic downturn , the most severe one since the Global Financial Crisis
•           The lockdowns and social distancing norms brought the already slowing  global economy to a standstill
•           Global economic output estimated to fall by 3.5% in 2020 (IMF January 2021 estimates)
•           Governments and central banks across the globe deployed various policy tools to support their economies such as lowering policy rates, quantitative easing measures, etc.
•           India adopted a  four-pillar strategy  of containment, fiscal, financial, and long-term structural reforms:
o  Calibrated fiscal and monetary support  was provided, cushioning the vulnerable during the lockdown and boosting consumption and investment while unlocking
o A  favourable monetary policy  ensured abundant liquidity and immediate relief to debtors while unclogging monetary policy transmission
•           As per the advance estimates by NSO, India’s GDP is estimated to grow by (-) 7.7% in FY21 – a  robust sequential growth of 23.9%  in H2: FY21 over H1: FY21
•           India’s  real GDP  to record a  11.0% growth in FY2021-22  and  nominal GDP  to grow by  15.4%  – the  highest since independence :

Rebound to be led by low base and continued normalization in economic activities as the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gathers traction

•            Government consumption  and  net exports  cushioned the growth from diving further down, whereas investment and private consumption pulled it down
•           The recovery in second half of FY2020-21 is expected to be powered by  government consumption , estimated to grow at  17% YoY
•           Exports expected to decline by 5.8% and imports by 11.3% in the second half of FY21
•           India expected to have a  Current Account Surplus of 2% of GDP  in FY21, a  historic high after 17 years
•           On supply side, Gross Value Added (GVA) growth pegged at -7.2% in FY21 as against 3.9% in FY20:
o  Agriculture set to cushion the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Indian economy in FY21 with a growth of 3.4%
o  Industry and services estimated to contract by 9.6% and 8.8% respectively during FY21
•           Agriculture remained the silver lining while  contact-based services, manufacturing, construction were hit hardest , and recovering steadily
•           India remained a  preferred investment destination  in FY 2020-21 with FDI pouring in amidst global asset shifts towards equities and prospects of quicker recovery in emerging economies:
o Net  FPI inflows  recorded an  all-time monthly high of US$ 9.8 billion  in November 2020, as investors’ risk appetite returned
o  India was the only country among emerging markets to receive equity FII inflows in 2020
•           Buoyant SENSEX and NIFTY resulted in India’s  market-cap to GDP ratio crossing 100% for the first time since October 2010
•            Softening of CPI inflation  recently reflects easing of supply side constraints that affected food inflation
•           Mild contraction of 0.8% in investment (as measured by Gross Fixed Capital Formation) in 2 nd  half of FY21, as against 29% drop in 1 st  half of FY21
•           Reignited  inter and intra state movement  and record-high monthly  GST collections  have marked the unlocking of industrial and commercial activity
•           The  external sector  provided an effective cushion to growth with India recording a  Current Account Surplus of 3.1% of GDP  in the first half of FY21:
o  Strong services exports  and weak demand leading to a sharper contraction in imports (merchandise imports contracted by 39.7%) than exports (merchandise exports contracted by 21.2%)
o  Forex reserves  increased to a level so as to cover 18 months worth of imports in December 2020
o  External debt  as a ratio to GDP increased to 21.6% at end-September 2020 from 20.6% at end-March 2020
o Ratio of forex reserves to total and short-term debt improved because of the sizable accretion in reserves
•            V-shaped recovery  is underway, as demonstrated by a sustained resurgence in high frequency indicators such as power demand, e-way bills, GST collection, steel consumption, etc.
•           India became the  fastest country to roll-out 10 lakh vaccines  in 6 days and also emerged as a  leading supplier of the vaccine  to neighbouring countries and Brazil
•            Economy’s homecoming to normalcy  brought closer by the initiation of a mega vaccination drive:
o  Hopes of a robust recovery  in services sector, consumption, and investment have been rekindled
o Reforms must go on to enable India realize its potential growth and erase the adverse impact of the pandemic
•           India’s  mature policy response  to the ‘once-in-a-century’ crisis provides important lessons for democracies to avoid myopic policy-making and demonstrates benefits of focusing on  long-term gains
 
Does Growth lead to Debt Sustainability? Yes, But Not Vice- Versa!
•            Growth leads to debt sustainability  in the Indian context but not necessarily vice-versa:

Debt sustainability depends on the ‘Interest Rate Growth Rate Differential’ (IRGD), i.e., the difference between the interest rate and the growth rate

o In India,  interest rate on debt is less than growth rate  – by norm, not by exception
•            Negative IRGD in India  – not due to lower interest rates but much higher growth rates – prompts a debate on fiscal policy, especially during growth slowdowns and economic crises
•           Growth causes debt to become sustainable in countries with higher growth rates; such clarity about the causal direction is not witnessed in countries with lower growth rates
•           Fiscal multipliers are disproportionately higher during economic crises than during economic booms
•            Active fiscal policy  can ensure that the full benefit of reforms is reaped by limiting potential damage to productive capacity
•           Fiscal policy that provides an impetus to growth will lead to  lower debt-to-GDP ratio
•           Given India’s growth potential,  debt sustainability is unlikely to be a problem  even in the worst scenarios
•            Desirable to use counter-cyclical fiscal policy  to enable growth during economic downturns
•           Active, counter-cyclical fiscal policy – not a call for fiscal irresponsibility, but to break the intellectual anchoring that has created an  asymmetric bias against fiscal policy
 
Does India’s Sovereign Credit Rating Reflect Its Fundamentals? No!
•           The  fifth largest economy in the world  has never been rated as the lowest rung of the investment grade (BBB-/Baa3) in sovereign credit ratings:

Reflecting the economic size and thereby the ability to repay debt, the fifth largest economy has been predominantly rated AAA

o China and India are the only exceptions to this rule – China was rated A-/A2 in 2005 and now India is rated BBB-/Baa3
•            India’s sovereign credit ratings do not reflect its fundamentals:

A clear outlier amongst countries rated between A+/A1 and BBB-/Baa3 for S&P/ Moody’s, on several parameters

o Rated significantly lower than mandated by the effect on the sovereign rating of the parameter
•           Credit ratings map the  probability of default  and therefore reflect the willingness and ability of borrower to meet its obligations:

India’s  willingness to pay  is unquestionably demonstrated through its  zero sovereign default history

o India’s  ability to pay  can be gauged by low foreign currency denominated debt and  forex reserves
•           Sovereign credit rating changes for India have  no or weak correlation with macroeconomic indicators
•           India’s fiscal policy should reflect Gurudev Rabindranath Tagore’s sentiment of  ‘a mind without fear’
•           Sovereign credit ratings methodology should be made  more transparent, less subjective  and better attuned to reflect economies’ fundamentals
 
Inequality and Growth: Conflict or Convergence?
•           The relationship between inequality and socio-economic outcomes vis-à-vis economic growth and socio-economic outcomes, is different in India from that in advanced economies.
•           Both inequality and per-capita income (growth) have similar relationships with socio-economic indicators in India, unlike in advanced economies
•            Economic growth has a greater impact on poverty alleviation than inequality
•           India must continue to focus on  economic growth to lift the poor out of poverty
•            Expanding the overall pie  – redistribution in a developing economy is feasible only if the size of the economic pie grows
 
Healthcare takes centre stage, finally!
•           COVID-19 pandemic emphasized the importance of healthcare sector and its inter-linkages with other sectors – showcased how a health crisis transformed into an economic and social crisis
•           India’s  health infrastructure must be agile  so as to respond to pandemics – healthcare policy must not become beholden to ‘saliency bias’
•            National Health Mission  (NHM) played a critical role in mitigating inequity as the access of the poorest to pre-natal/post-natal care and institutional deliveries increased significantly
•           Emphasis on NHM in conjunction with  Ayushman Bharat  should continue
•           An  increase in public healthcare spending from 1% to 2.5-3% of GDP  can decrease the  out-of-pocket expenditure from 65% to 35%  of overall healthcare spending
•           A  regulator for the healthcare sector  must be considered given the market failures stemming from information asymmetry

Mitigation of information asymmetry will help  lower insurance premiums , enable the offering of better products and  increase insurance penetration

o Information utilities that help mitigate the information asymmetry in healthcare sector will be useful in  enhancing overall welfare
•            Telemedicine  needs to be harnessed to the fullest by investing in  internet connectivity  and  health infrastructure
 
 
 
Process Reforms
•           India over-regulates the economy resulting in regulations being ineffective even with relatively good compliance with process
•           The root cause of the problem of overregulation is an approach that attempts to account for every possible outcome
•           Increase in complexity of regulations, intended to reduce discretion, results in even more non-transparent discretion
•           The solution is to  simplify regulations  and  invest in greater supervision  which, by definition, implies greater discretion
•           Discretion, however, needs to be balanced with  transparency , systems of ex-ante accountability and ex-post resolution mechanisms
•           The above intellectual framework has already informed reforms ranging from labour codes to removal of onerous regulations on the BPO sector
 
Regulatory Forbearance an emergency medicine, not staple diet!
•           During the Global Financial Crisis, regulatory  forbearance  helped borrowers tide over temporary hardship
•           Forbearance continued long after the economic recovery, resulting in unintended consequences for the economy
•           Banks exploited the forbearance window for window-dressing their books and misallocated credit, thereby damaging the quality of investment in the economy
•           Forbearance represents emergency medicine that should be discontinued at the first opportunity when the economy exhibits recovery, not a staple diet that gets continued for years
•           To promote judgement amidst uncertainty,  ex-post inquests must recognize the role of hindsight bias  and not equate unfavourable outcomes to bad judgement or  malafide intent
•           An  Asset Quality Review  exercise must be conducted immediately after the forbearance is withdrawn
•           The  legal infrastructure  for the recovery of loans needs to be strengthened de facto
 
 
Innovation: Trending Up but Needs Thrust, Especially from the Private Sector
•            India entered the top-50 innovating countries for the first time in 2020  since the inception of the Global Innovation Index in 2007, ranking  first in Central and South Asia , and third amongst lower middle-income group economies
•           India’s gross domestic expenditure on R&D (GERD) is lowest amongst top ten economies
•            India’s aspiration must be to compete on innovation with the top ten economies
•           The  government sector contributes a disproportionately large share in total GERD  at three times the average of top ten economies
•           The business sector’s contribution to GERD, total R&D personnel and researchers is amongst the lowest when compared to top ten economies
•           This situation has prevailed despite higher tax incentives for innovation and access to equity capital
•            India’s business sector needs to significantly ramp up investments in R&D
•           Indian resident’s share in total patents filed in the country must rise from the current 36% which is much below the average of 62% in top ten economies
•           For achieving higher improvement in innovation output, India must focus on  improving its performance on institutions and business sophistication innovation inputs
 
JAY Ho! PM‘JAY’ Adoption and Health outcomes
•            Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PM-JAY)  – the ambitious program launched by Government of India in 2018 to provide healthcare access to the most vulnerable sections demonstrates  strong positive effects on healthcare outcomes in a short time
•           PM-JAY is being used significantly for high frequency, low cost care such as dialysis and continued during the Covid pandemic and the lockdown.
•           Causal impact of PM-JAY on health outcomes by undertaking a Difference-in-Difference analysis based on National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-4 (2015-16) and NFHS-5 (2019-20) is following:

Enhanced health insurance coverage: The proportion of households that had health insurance increased in Bihar, Assam and Sikkim from 2015-16 to 2019-20 by 89% while it decreased by 12% over the same period in West Bengal
Decline in  Infant Mortality rate: from 2015-16 to 2019-20, infant mortality rates declined by 20% for West Bengal and by 28% for the three neighbouring states
Decline in under-5 mortality rate: Bengal saw a fall of 20% while, the neighbours witnessed a 27% reduction
Modern methods of contraception, female sterilization and pill usage went up by 36%, 22% and 28% respectively in the three neighbouring states while the respective changes for West Bengal were negligible
While West Bengal did not witness any significant decline in unmet need for spacing between consecutive kids, the neighbouring three states recorded a 37% fall
Various metrics for mother and child care improved more in the three neighbouring states than in West Bengal.

•           Each of these health effects manifested similarly when we compare all states that implemented PM-JAY versus the states that did not
•           Overall, the comparison reflects  significant improvements in several health outcomes in states that implemented PM-JAY versus those that did not
 
Bare Necessities
•            Access to the ‘bare necessities’ has improved across all States in the country in 2018 as compared to 2012
o It is highest in States such as Kerala, Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat while lowest in Odisha, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Tripura
o  Improvement in each of the five dimensions  viz., access to water, housing, sanitation, micro-environment and other facilities
o Inter-State disparities declined across rural and urban areas as the laggard states have gained relatively more between 2012 and 2018
o Improved disproportionately more for the poorest households when compared to the richest households across rural and urban areas
•           Improved access to the ‘bare necessities’ has led to  improvements in health indicators  such as infant mortality and under-5 mortality rate and also  correlates with future improvements in education indicators
•           Thrust should be given to reduce variation in the access to bare necessities across states, between rural and urban and between income groups
•           The schemes such as  Jal Jeevan Mission, SBM-G, PMAY-G , etc. may design appropriate strategy to reduce these gaps
•           A Bare Necessities Index (BNI) based on the large annual household survey data can be constructed using suitable indicators and methodology at district level for all/targeted districts to assess the progress on access to bare necessities.
Fiscal Developments
•           India adopted a  calibrated approach  best suited for a resilient recovery of its economy from COVID-19 pandemic impact, in contrast with a front-loaded large stimulus package adopted by many countries
•            Expenditure policy  in 2020-21 initially aimed at supporting the vulnerable sections but was re-oriented to boost overall demand and capital spending, once the lockdown was unwound
•            Monthly GST collections  have crossed the  Rs. 1 lakh crore  mark consecutively for the last 3 months, reaching its  highest levels in December 2020 ever since the introduction of GST
•            Reforms in tax administration  have begun a process of transparency and accountability and have incentivized tax compliance by enhancing honest tax-payers’ experience
•           Central Government has also taken consistent steps to impart support to the States in the challenging times of the pandemic
 
External Sector
•           COVID-19 pandemic led to a sharp decline in global trade, lower commodity prices and tighter external financing conditions with implications for current account balances and currencies of different countries
•           India’s  forex reserves at an all-time high of US$ 586.1 billion as on January 08, 2021 , covering about 18 months worth of imports
•           India experiencing a Current Account Surplus along with robust capital inflows leading to a  BoP surplus since Q4 of FY2019-20
•           Balance on the capital account is buttressed by  robust FDI and FPI inflows :
o Net FDI inflows of US$ 27.5 billion during April-October, 2020: 14.8% higher as compared to first seven months of FY2019-20
o Net FPI inflows of US$ 28.5 billion during April-December, 2020 as against US$ 12.3 billion in corresponding period of last year
•           In H1: FY21, steep contraction in merchandise imports and lower outgo for travel services led to:
o Sharper fall in current payments (by 30.8%) than current receipts (15.1%)
o Current Account Surplus of US$ 34.7 billion (3.1% of GDP)
•            India to end with an Annual Current Account Surplus after a period of 17 years
•           India’s  merchandise   trade deficit was lower  at US$ 57.5 billion in April-December, 2020 as compared to US$ 125.9 billion in the corresponding period last year
•           In April-December, 2020,  merchandise exports  contracted by 15.7% to US$ 200.8 billion from US$ 238.3 billion in April-December, 2019:
o Petroleum, Oil and Lubricants (POL) exports have contributed negatively to export performance during the period under review
o Non-POL exports turned positive and helped in improving export performance in Q3 of 2020-21
o Within Non-POL exports, agriculture & allied products, drugs & pharmaceutical and ores & minerals recorded expansion
•           Total  merchandise imports  declined by (-) 29.1% to US$ 258.3 billion during April-December, 2020 from US$ 364.2 billion during the same period last year:
o Sharp decline in POL imports pulled down the overall import growth
o Imports contracted sharply in Q1 of 2020-21; the pace of contraction eased in subsequent quarters, due to the accelerated positive growth in Gold and Silver imports and narrowing contraction in non-POL, non-Gold & non-Silver imports
o Fertilizers, vegetable oil, drugs & pharmaceuticals and computer hardware & peripherals have contributed positively to the growth of non-POL, non-Gold & non-Silver imports
•            Trade balance with China and the US improved as imports slowed
•            Net services receipts  amounting to US$ 41.7 billion remained stable in April-September 2020 as compared with US$ 40.5 billion in corresponding period a year ago.
•            Resilience of the services sector  was primarily driven by software services, which accounted for 49% of total services exports
•            Net private transfer receipts , mainly representing remittances by Indians employed overseas, totaling US$ 35.8 billion in H1: FY21 declined by 6.7% over the corresponding period of previous year
•           At end-September 2020, India’s  external debt  placed at US$ 556.2 billion – a decrease of US$ 2.0 billion (0.4%) as compared to end-March 2020.
•           Improvement in  debt vulnerability indicators :
o Ratio of forex reserves to total and short-term debt (original and residual)
o Ratio of short-term debt (original maturity) to the total stock of external debt.
o Debt service ratio (principal repayment plus interest payment) increased to 9.7% as at end-September 2020, compared to 6.5% as at end-March 2020
•            Rupee appreciation/depreciation:
o In terms of 6-currency nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) (trade-based weights), Rupee depreciated by 4.1% in December 2020 over March 2020; appreciated by 2.9% in terms of real effective exchange rate (REER)
o In terms of 36-currency NEER (trade-based weights), Rupee depreciated by 2.9% in December 2020 over March 2020; appreciated by 2.2% in terms of REER
•            RBI’s interventions in forex markets  ensured financial stability and orderly conditions, controlling the volatility and one-sided appreciation of the Rupee
•            Initiatives undertaken to promote exports:
o Production Linked Incentive  (PLI) Scheme
o Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products ( RoDTEP )
o Improvement in logistics infrastructure and digital initiatives
 
Money Management and Financial Intermediation
•            Accommodative monetary policy  during 2020: repo rate   cut by 115 bps   since March 2020
•            Systemic liquidity  in FY2020-21 has remained in surplus so far. RBI undertook various conventional and unconventional measures like:
o Open Market Operations
o Long Term Repo Operations
o Targeted Long Term Repo Operations
•            Gross Non-Performing Assets  ratio of Scheduled Commercial Banks decreased from 8.21% at end-March, 2020 to 7.49% at end-September, 2020
•           The monetary transmission of lower policy rates to deposit and lending rates improved during FY2020-21
•           NIFTY-50 and BSE SENSEX reached  record high closing  of 14,644.7 and 49,792.12 respectively on January 20, 2021
•           The recovery rate for the Scheduled Commercial Banks through IBC (since its inception) has been over 45%
 
Prices and Inflation
•            Headline CPI inflation:
o Averaged 6.6% during April-December, 2020 and stood at 4.6% in December, 2020, mainly driven by rise in food inflation (from 6.7% in 2019-20 to 9.1% during April-December, 2020, owing to build up in vegetable prices)
o CPI headline and its sub groups witnessed inflation during April-October 2020, driven by substantial increase in price momentum – due to the  initial disruptions caused by COVID-19 lockdown
o Moderated price momentum by November 2020 for most sub groups, coupled with positive base effect helped ease inflation
•            Rural-urban difference in CPI inflation  saw a decline in 2020:

Since November 2019, CPI-Urban inflation has closed the gap with CPI-Rural inflation
Food inflation has almost converged now
Divergence in rural-urban inflation observed in other components of CPI like fuel and light, clothing and footwear, miscellaneous etc.

•           During April-December, 2019 as well as April-December, 2020-21, the major driver of CPI-C inflation was the  food and beverages  group:

Contribution increased to 59% during April-December, 2020, compared to 53.7% during April-December, 2019

•            Thali cost   increased  between June 2020 and November 2020, however a sharp fall in the month of December reflecting the fall in the prices of many essential food commodities
•            State-wise trend:

CPI-C inflation increased in most of the states in the current year
Regional variation persists
Inflation ranged from 3.2% to 11% across States/UTs during June-December 2020 compared to (-) 0.3% to 7.6% during the same period last year.

•            Food inflation  driving overall CPI-C inflation due to the relatively more weight of food items in the index.
•           Steps taken to stabilize prices of food items:

Banning of export of onions
Imposition of stock limit on onions
Easing of restriction on imports of pulses

•            Gold prices:

Sharp spike as investors turned to  gold as a safe haven investment amid COVID-19  induced economic uncertainties
Compared to other assets, gold had considerably higher returns during FY2020-21

•           Consistency in import policy warrants attention:

Increased dependence on imports of edible oils poses risk of fluctuations in import prices
Imports impacting production and prices of domestic edible oil market, coupled with frequent changes in import policy of pulses and edible oils, add to confusion among farmers/producers and delay imports

Sustainable Development and Climate Change
•           India has taken several proactive steps to  mainstream the SDGs  into the policies, schemes and programmes
•            Voluntary National Review  (VNR) presented to the United Nations High-Level Political Forum (HLPF) on Sustainable Development
•            Localisation of SDGs  is crucial to any strategy aimed at achieving the goals under the 2030 Agenda

Several States/UTs have created institutional structures for implementation of SDGs and also nodal mechanisms within every department and at the district levels for better coordination and convergence

•           Sustainable development remains core to the development strategy despite the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic crisis
•           Eight National Missions under  National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)  focussed on the objectives of adaptation, mitigation and preparedness on climate risks
•            India’s Nationally Determined Contributions  (NDC) states that finance is a critical enabler of climate change action
•           The financing considerations will therefore remain critical especially as the country steps up the targets substantially
•           The goal of jointly mobilizing US$ 100 billion a year by 2020 for climate financing by the developed countries has remained elusive
•           The postponement of COP26 to 2021 also gives less time for negotiations and other evidence-based work to inform the post-2025 goal
•           Despite overall growth in the global bond markets, green bond issuance in the first half of 2020 slowed down from 2019, possibly as a result of the on-going COVID-19 pandemic
•            International Solar Alliance (ISA)  launched two new initiatives –  ‘World Solar Bank’  and  ‘One Sun One World One Grid Initiative’  – poised to bring about solar energy revolution globally
Agriculture and Food Management
•           India’s  Agricultural (and Allied Activities) sector  has shown its resilience amid the adversities of COVID-19 induced lockdowns with a  growth of 3.4% at constant prices during 2020-21 (first advance estimate)
 
•           The share of Agriculture and Allied Sectors in Gross Value Added (GVA) of the country at current prices is  17.8%  for the year 2019-20 (CSO-Provisional Estimates of National Income, 29 th  May, 2020)
 
•            Gross Capital Formation (GCF)  relative to GVA showing a fluctuating trend from 17.7 % in 2013-14 to 16.4 % in 2018-19, with a dip to 14.7 % in 2015-16
 
•            Total food grain production  in the country in the agriculture year 2019-20 (as per Fourth Advance Estimates), is  11.44 million tonnes  more than than during 2018-19
 
•           The  actual agricultural credit flow  was  ₹13,92,469.81  crores against the target of ₹13,50,000 crores in 2019-20. The target for 2020-21 was ₹15,00,000 crores and a sum of ₹ 9,73,517.80 crores was disbursed till 30th November, 2020:



1.5 crore dairy farmers  of milk cooperatives and milk producer companies’ were targeted to provide Kisan Credit Cards (KCC) as part of Prime Minister’s AatmaNirbhar Bharat Package after the budget announcement of  February 2020
As of mid January 2021, a total of  44,673 Kisan Credit Cards (KCCs)  have been issued to fishers and fish farmers and an additional 4.04 lakh applications from fishers and fish farmers are with the banks at various stages of issuance



 
•           The  Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana  covers over  5.5 crore farmer  applications year on year



Claims worth  Rs. 90,000 crore  paid, as on 12 th  January, 2021
Speedy claim settlement directly into the farmer accounts through Aadhar linkage
70 lakh farmers  benefitted and claims worth Rs. 8741.30 crores were transferred during COVID-19 lock down period



 
•           An amount of  Rs. 18000 crore  have been deposited directly in the bank accounts of  9 crore farmer families  of the country in December, 2020 in the 7 th  installment of financial benefit under the  PM-KISAN  scheme
 
•            Fish production  reached an all-time high of 14.16 million metric tons during 2019-20:



GVA by the Fisheries sector to the national economy stood at ₹2,12,915 crores constituting 1.24% of the total national GVA and 7.28 % of the agricultural GVA



•            Food Processing Industries (FPI)  sector growing at an Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) of around 9.99 % as compared to around 3.12 % in Agriculture and 8.25 % in Manufacturing at 2011-12 prices during the last 5 years ending 2018-19
•            Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana:



80.96 crore beneficiaries were provided foodgrains above NFSA mandated requirement free of cost till November, 2020.
Over 200 LMT of foodgrains were provided amounting to a fiscal outgo of over Rs. 75000 Crores



•            AatmaNirbhar Bharat Package:  5 kg per person per month for four months (May to August) to approximately 8 crores migrants (excluded under NFSA or state ration card) entailing subsidy of  Rs. 3109 crores approximately
Industry and Infrastructure
•           A strong  V-shaped recovery  of economic activity further confirmed by IIP data
•           The  IIP  &  eight-core index  further inched up to pre-COVID levels
•           The broad-based recovery in the IIP resulted in a growth of (-) 1.9 % in Nov-2020 as compared to a growth of 2.1 % in Nov-2019 and a nadir of (-) 57.3 % in Apr-2020
•           Further improvement and firming up in industrial activities are foreseen with the Government enhancing capital expenditure, the vaccination drive and the resolute push forward on long pending reform measures
•            AatmaNirbhar Bharat Abhiyan  with a stimulus package worth  15 % of India’s GDP  announced
•           India’s rank in the  Ease of Doing Business  (EoDB) Index for 2019 has moved upwards to the  63 rd  position in 2020  from 77 th  in 2018 as per the Doing Business Report (DBR):



India has improved its position in 7 out of 10 indicators
Acknowledges India as one of the top 10 improvers, the third time in a row, with an improvement of 67 ranks in three years
It is also the highest jump by any large country since 2011



•            FDI equity inflows were US$49.98 billion in FY20  as compared to US$44.37 billion during FY19:



It is US$30.0 billion for FY21 (up to September-2020)
The bulk of FDI equity flow is in the non-manufacturing sector
Within the manufacturing sector, industries like automobile, telecommunication, metallurgical, non-conventional energy, chemical (other than fertilizers), food processing, petroleum & natural gas got the bulk of FDI



•           Government has announced a  Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme  in the 10 key sectors under the aegis of  AatmaNirbhar Bharat  for enhancing India’s manufacturing capabilities and exports:



To be implemented by the concerned ministries with an overall expenditure estimated at Rs.1.46 lakh crores and with sector specific financial limits



Services Sector
•           India’s services sector contracted by nearly 16 % during H1: FY2020-21, during the COVID-19 pandemic mandated lockdown, owing to its  contact-intensive nature
•            Key indicators  such as Services Purchasing Managers’ Index, rail freight traffic, and port traffic, are all displaying a V-shaped recovery after a sharp decline during the lockdown
•           Despite the disruptions being witnessed globally,  FDI inflows  into India’s services sector grew robustly by 34% Y-o-Y during April-September 2020 to reach US$ 23.6 billion
•           The services sector accounts for over  54 % of India’s GVA  and nearly  four-fifths of total FDI inflow into India
•           The sector’s share in GVA exceeds 50% in 15 out of 33 States and UTs, and is particularly more pronounced (greater than 85%) in Delhi and Chandigarh
•           Services sector accounts for  48% of total exports , outperforming goods exports in the recent years
•           The  shipping turnaround time  at ports has almost halved from 4.67 days in 2010-11 to  2.62 days  in 2019-20
•           The Indian  start-up ecosystem  has been progressing well amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, being home to  38 unicorns  – adding a record number of 12 start-ups to the unicorn list last year
•           India’s  space sector  has grown exponentially in the past six decades:



Spent about US$ 1.8 billion on space programmes in 2019-20
Space ecosystem is undergoing several policy reforms to engage private players and attract innovation and investment



Social Infrastructure, Employment and Human Development
•           The combined (Centre and States)  social sector expenditure  as % of GDP has increased in 2020-21 compared to last year.
•           India’s rank in HDI 2019 was recorded at 131, out of a total 189 countries:



India’s  GNI per capita  (2017 PPP $) has increased from US$ 6,427 in 2018 to US$ 6,681 in 2019






Life expectancy at birth  improved from 69.4 years in 2018 to 69.7 years in 2019



•           The access to data network, electronic devices such as computer, laptop, smart phone etc. gained importance due to  online learning  and  remote working  during the pandemic
•           Major proportion of workforce engaged as regular wage/salaried in the urban sector during the period of January 2019-March 2020 (quarterly survey of PLFS)
•           Government’s incentive to boost employment through  AatmaNirbhar Bharat Rozgar Yojana  and rationalization and simplification of existing labour codes into 4 codes
•           Low level of female LFPR in India:



Females spending disproportionately more time on unpaid domestic and care giving services to household members as compared to their male counterparts (Time Use Survey, 2019)
Need to promote non-discriminatory practices at the workplace like pay and career progression, improve work incentives, including other medical and social security benefits for female workers



•           Under  PMGKP  announced in March, 2020,  cash transfers of upto Rs.1000  to existing old aged, widowed and disabled beneficiaries under the National Social Assistance Programme (NSAP)
•           An amount of Rs. 500 each was transferred for three months digitally into bank accounts of the women beneficiaries under  PM Jan Dhan Yojana , totalling about  Rs.   20.64 crores
•            Free distribution of gas cylinders  to about  8 crore  families for three months
•           Limit of collateral-free lending increased from Rs. 10 lakhs to Rs. 20 lakhs for 63 lakh women SHGs  which would support 6.85 crore households
•            Wages under Mahatma Gandhi NREGA  increased by Rs.20 from Rs.182 to Rs.202 w.e.f. 1 st  April, 2020
India’s fight against COVID-19:



Initial measures of lockdown, social distancing, travel advisories, practising hand wash, wearing masks reduced the spread of the disease
Country also acquired  self-reliance in essential medicines , hand sanitizers, protective equipment including masks, PPE Kits, ventilators, COVID-19 testing and treatment facilities
World’s largest COVID-19 vaccination drive  commenced on 16 th  January, 2021 using two indigenously manufactured vaccines


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