The Goods and Service Tax (GST) revenue collection is expected to cross Rs 1.20 lakh crore in January 2021, said a research report by State Bank of India (SBI).
“The Government’s ongoing efforts are bearing fruit in the form of GST collections. After clocking record collections in December 2020 month (Rs 1.15 lakh crore), our internal simulation model indicates that January 2021 GST collections will be in the range of Rs 1.21-1.23 lakh crore and may still have an upside. The positive trend which started from September 2020 has sustained and gained momentum,” SBI research report ‘Ecowrap’ said.
If 50 per cent of the IGST collected is disbursed to the states by March, then the state GST shortfall can narrow down to only a minimal Rs 11,000 crore after taking into account the full compensation cess, the report added.
”If the central government keeps 60 per cent of the IGST revenue, then the states could be staring at a shortfall of around Rs 67,000 crore,” the report further said.
The SGST collection for states is 12 per cent lower at Rs 1.87 lakh crore in April-December 2020 and the allocated IGST is 13 per cent lower at Rs 1.26 lakh crore.
The GST cess collection has stood at Rs 60,312 crore, 17 per cent lower than last year. The combined amount of SGST, allocated IGST and cess stands at Rs 3.73 lakh crore, which is 13 per cent lower but is equal to 58 per cent of their budgeted SGST of Rs 6.49 lakh crore.
If the Centre keeps 60 per cent of the IGST revenue, then the states could be staring at a shortfall of around Rs 67,000 crore.