How Gen Z voters who barely remember politics before Trump could impact the 2024 election

What were you doing the morning after the 2016 election? Commuting to work? Shopping at the grocery store? Taking your kids to school?



Americans who were eligible to vote for the first time in the 2024 presidential election were in an elementary or middle school classroom. 



That morning after the 2016 election was shocking. Pre-election polls projected an easy win for Hillary Clinton—with estimates ranging from 71 to 99%. Donald Trump’s unexpected victory surprised even his own pollsters. Trump’s rhetoric, displayed in instances like the infamous Access Hollywood tape and his call for “a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States,” led many to view him as unelectable. 



Eight years later, however, most first-time voters have very little memory of a political landscape without Trump, and many are unaware of some of his most controversial comments and actions, a phenomenon dubbed “Trumpnesia” by the Democratic research and polling firm Blueprint. 



Given that young voters were instrumental in the election of current president Joe Biden in 2020, this phenomenon could have a huge impact on the outcome of the upcoming 2024 presidential election. 



Who remembers 2016?



Blueprint led an investigation into “Trumpnesia,” surveying voters 18-30 on which statements they remembered Trump making and asking if the statements bothered them. 



The survey found that a majority of those surveyed, 72%, had heard about the things Trump had said about the 2020 election being rigged, while 67% had heard about his comments calling the coronavirus “Kung Flu.”



However, other comments, such as his statement that Americans who died in World War I were “losers” and that Jews who supported Democrats “hate their religion,” had only been heard by 35% of youth voters. 



“There is this assumption that if you were an active political professional during those times, everyone must know and remember all of the things Trump has said and done,” Blueprint lead pollster Evan Roth Smith says. “But those under 25 or 26 were not eligible to vote in 2016 and probably weren’t paying much attention to politics.” 



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For Trump critics who have long asserted that he belongs nowhere near the White House, one might assume that his ongoing refusal to accept the results of a democratic election would be enough to inspire first-time voters to show up on November 5 and vote against him. However, Smith says that issue alone may not make much of a difference, as many young voters have become disillusioned with democracy itself.



“If you're a young person who is very frustrated with the current state of the country . . . it is pretty easy to say, 'Who cares if Donald Trump is disrespecting democracy?’ It feels like maybe our democracy is disrespecting me,” Smith says. 



Blueprint found that statements about the election being stolen were the least bothersome to young voters, whereas statements Trump made about marginalized groups were the most bothersome.



The firm found a startling gap between the low numbers of people who remembered these statements and the high numbers of people who were bothered by them. For example, while only 39% of those surveyed had heard about Trump’s comment telling non-white members of congress to go back to their countries, 61% of people were bothered by it. 



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Nostalgia for the Trump era



A lack of awareness about what Trump has said and done has created gaps that have pushed some younger voters toward Trump. 



According to a report by NPR, while President Joe Biden won voters 18-29 years old in 2020 by more than 20 points, he is currently just leading by 6 points among Gen Z and millennials in a head-to-head contest with Trump. Add independent and Green Party candidates into the mix and Biden falls behind Trump by 4 points.



“At the same time that younger voters don't know about these most outrageous things that Donald Trump has said, they also have this nostalgia for the years when he was president,” Smith says. 



A huge reason for this, Smith says, is the economy.



“The No. 1 thing that unites young voters is that the younger you are, the more economically vulnerable you are,” Smith says. “You have less time to save money, you are earlier in your career, and you are earning less.”



For many young voters, the economy seemed better under Trump compared to the post-pandemic years, Smith says. While older voters have more of a perspective about what the economy was like in the '80s, '90s, and early '00s, younger voters have fewer points of personal reference.



“I think what we tend to forget is that for most young people Trump just represents the years 2016 to 2020, which in the lives of many people in America, in particular many young people, were pretty good years economically, especially after the pandemic and now with inflation,” Smith says. 



To get some insight into this phenomenon, I decided to speak with some of my Gen Z peers, many of whom will be voting for the first time in 2024. 



Northwestern student and first-time voter Andrew White, 20, listed the economy as one of the top three most important issues for him, along with internet privacy and America’s involvement in conflicts overseas.



“Over the last few years, we've seen high inflation and housing markets doing terribly as a result,” White says. “As things continue the way they're looking right now, we are going to be living in our parents' basements in our thirties.”



White is in line with many young men who have pivoted toward more conservative policies since 2020. In a report by the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, researchers found that while Biden’s lead with young women under 30 remains about the same as this point in 2020, his lead with young men has decreased drastically from +26 to +6.



This poll reflects what I heard in my conversations with my peers, who range from high school seniors to those who'd just graduated college. Most of the young women I spoke with told me that while they did not love Biden, they would continue to support him because they disliked Trump more. The men I spoke with had a larger variety of opinions. Many were either politically disengaged or told me they were pivoting toward Trump after previously voting for Biden. 



What this means at the polls



The combination of Trumpnesia and a political consciousness shaped by Trump is likely to impact how young people turn out at the polls. 



The 47th Harvard Youth Poll found that 53% of Americans between ages 18 and 29 “definitely” plan on voting this November. However, the pollsters say that they are not confident in youth voter turnout for 2024, especially for those who are voting for the first time.



The spring poll found that for the 2024 election, 41% of respondents “ do not believe that their vote will make a difference,” which is up 3% from spring 2020. In addition to this, the number of those definitely voting is lower than the same time in 2020. 



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“We might just be reverting to the mean here [with this election],” Smith explains. “There isn't anything going on in this election that is necessarily particularly galvanizing to young voters the way that beating or voting for Donald Trump was, or beating or voting for Bernie Sanders was, or beating or voting for Barack Obama was.”



Historically, youth voters could not really be counted on until Barack Obama’s campaign in 2008, Smith says. However, Biden heavily relied on these voters last election, as they made up 1 in 6 voters in 2020. Trouble with youth voters could pose trouble for his campaign in 2024.



Meanwhile, telling disaffected young voters to "suck it up" and just do their civic duty is not likely get these voters back to the polls. Many young voters have already taken to social media and other outlets to explain their decision to abstain.



Engaging—and reengaging—young voters  



Apathy among young voters isn't new, and it doesn't mean all hope is lost. Organizations like NextGen America, the nation’s largest youth voter organization—which focuses on progressive causes—are finding unique ways to get voters out to the polls. 



“The youngest voters who are going to be 18 years old in this election . . . some of them would have been 10 years old when Donald Trump was first elected president,” NextGen president Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez says. “In our own polling and research, we are seeing that we need to pay special attention to those voters to turn them out.”



Issues such as the abortion ban will be high priority for many young voters, Tzintzún Ramirez says. NextGen’s research revealed that abortion is the No. 1 issue that female voters care about, and it's on the rise in importance for male voters as well. The group found that the economy still ranks as the top most important issue for men. 



Tzintzún Ramirez says NextGen has implemented campaigns such as " Hot Girls Vote " and " Male Voter Power " campaigns to get young voters out to the polls via events and text chains. 



“We are concerned, but we see a pathway forward to mobilize young people and engage them," Tzintzún Ramirez says. "So we are just trying to make sure we stay the course."