HR and the Law of Unintended Consequences
The actions we take, whether as individuals or institutions, often lead to consequences that we did not anticipate. This phenomenon, known as the Law of Unintended Consequences (LOUC), is a fundamental aspect of human decision-making and has significant implications for various fields, including economics and social science. Despite its importance, the LOUC is often ignored by those in decision-making roles.
The concept of the LOUC was first analyzed by sociologist Robert K. Merton in 1936. He identified five sources of unintended consequences that contribute to the divergence between intended and actual outcomes of actions:
Ignorance
Error
Imperious immediacy of interest
Basic values
Self-defeating predictions
The LOUC is ubiquitous because we, as humans, limited ability to foresee all the potential outcomes of our actions combined with our tendency to prioritize immediate benefits. Sometimes we just need to get shit done. We get in the groove and crank out a new policy or implement a change without doing the analysis about “what” might happen as a result when we, for example:
Institute unlimited PTO
Conduct an Employee Engagement Survey
Implement a Return to Office mandate
The consequences of our actions may vary and can range from beneficial to harmful – and these consequences may not always be immediately observable.
Like What?
Numerous examples illustrate the LOUC in various contexts:
An IT Department implements increased security measures requiring complex and “must change every 30 days” password protocol. An unintended consequence might be employees writing their passwords on post-it notes and sticking them to their monitors … thus defeating every attempt at strengthening security.
A government offers incentives that have the exact opposite intended effect. In India, back in the day (this really happened), in an attempt to control the cobra population, the government announced a “bounty” for captured/killed cobras. So, you guessed it; folks wanting to earn some money BRED cobras to earn more money and then, when they government shut down the program due to exploitation, all these NEW cobras were released by the breeders thus increasing the population beyond what had been the original count.
So yes, while some outcomes may bring unexpected benefits, others may exacerbate existing problems or even create new challenges. Perverse results occur when actions intended to improve a situation backfire … making it worse.
I once worked for an organization where, with a goal of decreasing expenses (admirable and understandable), the corporate powers-that-be issued directives (as they sat FAR removed in the corporate office). The demands to stop hiring full time employees and only hire part time employees, while also cutting OT labor, and reducing turnover led, as could be expected, to increased turnover within the first 30/60/90 days, higher operational and labor expenses, and additional unanticipated costs.
Second-Order Thinking
The failure to anticipate unintended consequences often stems from a lack of critical thinking and foresight. But a term (and mental model) I like much better is Second-Order thinking – referring to when one considers the long-term implications of decisions with an aim to mitigate risks and inform more effective planning and execution.
To adopt second-order thinking, individuals (and teams/organizations) should:
ask critical questions
consider the consequences over time, and
identify potential ripple effects.
Understanding the interconnectedness of various factors enables the capacity to make informed decisions and anticipate unintended outcomes. And in day-today HR, many initiatives require second-order thinking to anticipate and address unintended consequences effectively. Employee engagement surveys and listening “tours” may, for example, can yield valuable insights but may also inadvertently impact employee trust and behavior if not managed thoughtfully.
Here’s what I know … navigating the complexities of human decision-making requires a deep understanding of the Law of Unintended Consequences and a commitment to second-order thinking. When you start by acknowledging there’s potential for unintended outcomes you can proactively address them and, ideally, avoid costly missteps. The post HR and the Law of Unintended Consequences first appeared on Robin Schooling .
