It’s ‘danger season’ for natural disasters—and FEMA funding could run out by fall

Six months into 2024, tornadoes, winter storms, and other severe weather events have already cost the country more than $25 billion in aid and recovery costs. Now, with the Atlantic hurricane season beginning, experts are worried about what the rise in natural disasters could mean for the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s pool of disaster relief funding.



Thanks to record-high ocean temperatures, scientists expect this hurricane season to be intense; it could include up to 25 named storms, and between four and seven major hurricanes. Last year’s season—which was the fourth-most active on record—saw 20 named storms.



FEMA could run out of money by August, before the September peak of Atlantic hurricane season. A May report from the agency shows its disaster relief fund could see a $1.3 billion shortfall in August, and could be more than $6.8 billion in the red by September. 



“FEMA continues to work with the administration and Congress to ensure sufficient funding is available,” an agency spokesperson said via email. “Without additional funding, FEMA will take steps prior to funding exhaustion to ensure resources are available to support ongoing lifesaving and life-sustaining activities and provide a reserve for initial response and recovery operations for a new catastrophic event.”



FEMA funding issues aren’t new



FEMA faced similar budget issues last year. In late August 2023, the agency projected its disaster relief fund would reach a $4 billion deficit —and that was before Hurricane Idalia, a Category 4 storm, hit Florida. 



Because of the nature of FEMA’s work, a deficiency doesn’t mean there won’t be any disaster funding at all. The agency is able to take emergency measures, invoke “immediate needs funding,” or pause other, longer-term recovery projects so that it can prioritize its efforts in response to the most recent disasters.



Still, pausing that recovery work means the agency “can’t do the type of disaster response it needs to do,” says Shana Udvardy, a senior climate resilience policy analyst with the Union of Concerned Scientists . Udvardy says we see again and again, by spring, the FEMA administrator having to ask Congress for supplemental funding. “It really begs the fundamental question of, do we have the policies in place to really handle these types of disasters that climate change is making more frequent and more damaging?



A rise in natural disasters



It’s not just hurricanes that spark the need for disaster relief. Summer is rife for extreme weather , from heat waves and wildfires to tornadoes, thunderstorms, and floods. This time of year, from May through October, is what the Union of Concerned Scientists calls “ danger season .”  



The number of tracked natural disasters has risen sharply in recent years. The U.N. chief says natural disasters have quadrupled since 1970 . The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has been tracking disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion ; 11 such disasters have already occurred in 2024, totaling more than $25 billion. Between 1980 and 2023, the annual average of disaster events was 8.5; in the past five years alone, the average has jumped to 20.4.



But by tracking only $1 billion-plus events, those calculations also miss a lot of smaller disasters that the agency has to address; the real monetary costs are likely higher. “What also isn’t being tracked is the impact on everyday people and their ability to truly recover,” Udvardy says.



That timeline for recovery can vary. FEMA funding ends about 18 months after a disaster, but in one study on Hurricane Harvey , 40% of participants said they were still struggling with damage five years on. The mental health impacts of experiencing a natural disaster can also stretch beyond five years.



“The thing with climate change, it’s reaching more and more communities and leaving really no one untouched,” Udvardy says. “And we know that these extreme weather events like heat, flooding, and wildfires that are linked to climate change are impacting people in ways where it’s harming their safety, their health, and their prosperity.”



What do we need to address disasters?



Back in April, FEMA requested an additional $9 billion for its disaster relief fund. (At the beginning of the year, FEMA also adjusted rules to make disaster recovery faster .) Though its crucial for Congress to provide supplemental funding when needed, Udvardy notes that looking to the future, “we need to think more creatively about policy solutions so we can get beyond Band-Aid fixes.”



That means thinking about climate mitigation and resilience too. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law earmarked $50 billion for climate resilience and adaptation. “But at the end of the day, we are going to need more resources and funding for preparing communities on the front end,” she says. 



State and local communities can also focus on preparing for disasters by making evacuation plans, working to update homes to be more storm-resilient, and opening cooling centers, for example. The Union of Concerned Scientists has also called on Congress to pass a bill that would develop a national climate resilience plan. 



Somehow, Udvardy says, FEMA finds a way every year to spread the limited resources it has as it needs to. “But it will strain FEMA,” she says, “and that means straining the response.”