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Data Update 5 for 2023: The Earnings Test
As I have argued in all four of my posts, so far, about 2022, it was year when we saw a return to normalcy on many fronts, as treasury rates...
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Data Update 4 for 2023: Country Risk - Measures and Implications
I describe myself as a dabbler, and it does get in the way of my best laid plans. A few weeks ago, I posted my first data update pulling...
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Control, Complexity and Politics: Deconstructing the Adani Affair!
The India Rising story hit some turbulence last week, as one of its biggest corporate success stories, the Adani Group, was hit with a report from...
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Disagreements and First Principles: The Pushback on my Tesla Valuation
I wrote about my most recent valuation of Tesla just over a week ago , and as has always been the case when I value this company, I have heard...
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Data Update 3 for 2023: Inflation and Interest Rates
If 2022 was an unsettling year for equities, as I noted in my second data post, it was an even more tumultuous year for the bond market. The US...
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Tesla in 2023: A Return to Reality, The Start of the End or Time to Buy?
I am not much of a car person and view cars primarily as a mode of transportation. I drive a 2010 Honda Civic, a perfectly serviceable vehicle...
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Data Update 2 for 2023: A Rocky Year for Equities!
It is the nature of stocks that you have good years and bad ones, and much as we like to forget about the latter during market booms, they recur...
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Data Update 1 for 2023: Setting the table!
In my last post, I talked about the ritual that I go through every year ahead of my teaching each spring, and in this one, I will start on the...
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A Return to Teaching: The Spring 2023 Edition
If, as you read this post, it feels like you have read it or a close variant before, it is because you have. Each year, ahead of...
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META Lesson 3: Tell me a story!
In my first two posts on Facebook, I noted that its most recent earnings report, and the market reaction to it, offers an opportunity for us to...
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META Lesson 2: Accounting Inconsistencies and Consequences
In my last post, I used Facebook's recent troubles to talk about the importance of corporate governance, and how we, as investors, have...
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META Lesson 1: Corporate Governance
As we get deeper into earnings season for the third quarter of 2022, the biggest negative surprises are coming from technology companies, with the...
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Earnings and Cash Flows: A Primer on Free Cash Flow
It is never pleasant to be in the midst of a market correction, but a market correction does operate as a cleanser for excesses that enter into...
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Reaping the Whirlwind: A September 2022 Inflation Update!
In my early 2021 posts on inflation, I argued that while the higher inflation that we were just starting to see could be explained by COVID and...
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A Zomato 2022 Update: Value, Pricing and the Gap
On July 21, 2021, I valued Zomato just ahead of its initial public offering at about ₹ 41 per share. The market clearly had a very different...
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Country Risk: A 2022 Mid-year Update!
It has been my practice for the last two decades to take a detailed look at how risk varies across countries, once at the start of the year...
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Risk Capital and Markets: A Temporary Retreat or Long Term Pull Back?
As inflation has taken center stage, markets have gone into retreat globally, and across asset classes. In 2022, as bond rates have risen, stock...
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A Follow up on Inflation: The Disparate Effects on Company Values!
In my last post , I discussed how inflation's return has changed the calculus for investors, looking at how inflation affects returns on...
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In Search of a Steady State: Inflation, Interest Rates and Value
The nature of markets is that they are never quite settled, as investors recalibrate expectations constantly and reset prices. In most time...
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Elon's Twitter Play: Valuation and Corporate Governance Consequences
I am not a prolific user of social media platforms, completely inactive on Facebook and a casual lurker on LinkedIn, but I do use Twitter...
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ESG's Russia Test: Trial by Fire or Crash and Burn?
My views on ESG are not a secret. I believe that ESG is, at its core, a feel-good scam that is enriching consultants, measurement services and...
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Russia in Ukraine: Let Loose the Dogs of War!
As the world's attention is focused on the war in the Ukraine, it is the human toll, in death and injury, that should get our immediate attention,...
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Data Update 5 for 2022: The Bottom Line!
The proverbial bottom line for success in business is the capacity to deliver profits, at least in the long term. Even though we live in an age...